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Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences
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  • [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: Observations of high intensity rainfalls have been recorded at gauging stations in many parts of the world. In some instances the resulting data sets may not be sufficient in their scope and variability for purposes of analysis or design. By directly incorporating statistical properties of hyetographs with respect to the number of events per year, storm duration, peak intensity, cumulative rainfall and rising and falling limbs we develop a fundamentally basic procedure for Monte Carlo Simulation. Rainfall from Pavia and Milano in Lombardia region and from five gauging stations in the Piemonte region of northern Italy are used in this study. Firstly, we compare the hydrologic output from our model with that from other design storm methods for validation. Secondly, depth–duration–frequency curves are obtained from historical data and corresponding functions from simulated data are compared for further validation of the procedure. By adopting this original procedure one can simulate an unlimited range of realistic hydrographs that can be used in risk assessment. The potential for extension to ungauged catchments is shown.
    Journal of Hydrology 11/2014; 519:1–11.
  • [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: Describing the slip behaviour of an active fault system is central to understanding seismic potential of seismogenic areas. Different elements control the nature and the extent of the coseismic and postseismic ruptures, including the geometry of faults, the nature of faulted rocks, and the stress changes caused by the mainshocks. In May-June 2012 a severe seismic sequence struck a portion of the Po Plain (Northern Italy), where a thick blanket of Plio-Quaternary sediments hides a number of seismogenic sources corresponding to the external thrust systems of the Northern Apennines. We used deep seismic reflection data to reconstruct the geometry of the faults responsible for the sequence. These faults exhibit significant non-planarity due to tectono-stratigraphic heterogeneities inherited from a complex pre-thrusting extensional tectonic phase. A comparison of the fault parameters derived from our geological analysis and the evidence supplied by seismological (aftershock distributions) and geodetic data (InSAR) allowed to identify the causative fault segments of the two mainshocks. We then modeled the Coulomb stress changes produced by two mainshocks to analyze on- and off-fault seismicity. Discrepancies between the magnitude of the earthquakes and the extent of active faults suggest that the mainshocks did not rupture the entire thrust planes. We contend that seismogenic ruptures were confined in the Mesozoic carbonates and were stopped by lithological changes and/or mechanical complexities of the fault planes, both along dip and along strike. Our findings highlight that along the active structures of the Po Plain slip tends to be seismogenic where faults are located in Mesozoic carbonate rocks.
    Tectonophysics 09/2014;
  • Biology of blood and marrow transplantation: journal of the American Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation 07/2014;

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