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    ABSTRACT: Network theory is a well-established discipline that uses mathematical graphs to describe biological, physical, and social systems. The topologies across empirical networks display strikingly similar organizational properties. In particular, the characteristics of these networks allow computational analysis to contribute data unattainable from examining individual components in isolation. However, the interdisciplinary and quantitative nature of network analysis has yet to be exploited by public health initiatives to distribute preventive chemotherapies. One notable application is the 2012 World Health Organization (WHO) Roadmap for Neglected Tropical Diseases (NTDs) where there is a need to upscale distribution capacity and to target systematic noncompliers. An understanding of local networks for analysing the distributional properties of community-directed treatment may facilitate sustainable expansion of mass drug-administration (MDA) programs.
    Trends in Parasitology 06/2013; DOI:10.1016/j.pt.2013.04.005
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    ABSTRACT: This paper examines the health implications of global PM reduction accompanying greenhouse gas emissions reductions in the 180 national economies of the global macroeconomy. A human health effects module based on empirical data on GHG emissions, PM emissions, background PM concentrations, source apportionment and human health risk coefficients is used to estimate reductions in morbidity and mortality from PM exposures globally as co-reduction of GHG reductions. These results are compared against the "fuzzy bright line" that often underlies regulatory decisions for environmental toxics, and demonstrate that the risk reduction through PM reduction would usually be considered justified in traditional risk-based decisions for environmental toxics. It is shown that this risk reduction can be on the order of more than 4 × 10(-3) excess lifetime mortality risk, with global annual cost savings of slightly more than $10B, when uniform GHG reduction measures across all sectors of the economy form the basis for climate policy ($2.2B if only Annex I nations reduce). Consideration of co-reduction of PM-10 within a climate policy framework harmonized with other environmental policies can therefore be an effective driver of climate policy. An error analysis comparing results of the current model against those of significantly more spatially resolved models at city and national scales indicates errors caused by the low spatial resolution of the global model used here may be on the order of a factor of 2.
    Journal of Environmental Management 04/2013; 125C:1-6. DOI:10.1016/j.jenvman.2013.03.034
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    ABSTRACT: Input-output analysis is frequently used in studies of large-scale weather-related (e.g., Hurricanes and flooding) disruption of a regional economy. The economy after a sudden catastrophe shows a multitude of imbalances with respect to demand and production and may take months or years to recover. However, there is no consensus about how the economy recovers. This article presents a theoretical route map for imbalanced economic recovery called dynamic inequalities. Subsequently, it is applied to a hypothetical postdisaster economic scenario of flooding in London around the year 2020 to assess the influence of future shocks to a regional economy and suggest adaptation measures. Economic projections are produced by a macro econometric model and used as baseline conditions. The results suggest that London's economy would recover over approximately 70 months by applying a proportional rationing scheme under the assumption of initial 50% labor loss (with full recovery in six months), 40% initial loss to service sectors, and 10-30% initial loss to other sectors. The results also suggest that imbalance will be the norm during the postdisaster period of economic recovery even though balance may occur temporarily. Model sensitivity analysis suggests that a proportional rationing scheme may be an effective strategy to apply during postdisaster economic reconstruction, and that policies in transportation recovery and in health care are essential for effective postdisaster economic recovery.
    Risk Analysis 04/2013; DOI:10.1111/risa.12040
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    ABSTRACT: A model is presented in this work for simulating endogenously the evolution of the marginal costs of production of energy carriers from non-renewable resources, their consumption, depletion pathways and timescales. Such marginal costs can be used to simulate the long term average price formation of energy commodities. Drawing on previous work where a global database of energy resource economic potentials was constructed, this work uses cost distributions of non-renewable resources in order to evaluate global flows of energy commodities. A mathematical framework is given to calculate endogenous flows of energy resources given an exogenous commodity price path. This framework can be used in reverse in order to calculate an exogenous marginal cost of production of energy carriers given an exogenous carrier demand. Using rigid price inelastic assumptions independent of the economy, these two approaches generate limiting scenarios that depict extreme use of natural resources. This is useful to characterise the current state and possible uses of remaining non-renewable resources such as fossil fuels and natural uranium. The theory is however designed for use within economic or technology models that allow technology substitutions. In this work, it is implemented in the global power sector model FTT:Power. Policy implications are given.
    Energy Policy 09/2012; 63. DOI:10.1016/j.enpol.2013.08.040
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    ABSTRACT: This paper presents an assessment of global economic energy potentials for all major natural energy resources. This work is based on both an extensive literature review and calculations using natural resource assessment data. Economic potentials are presented in the form of cost-supply curves, in terms of energy flows for renewable energy sources, or fixed amounts for fossil and nuclear resources, with strong emphasis on uncertainty, using a consistent methodology that allow direct comparisons to be made. In order to interpolate through available resource assessment data and associated uncertainty, a theoretical framework and a computational methodology are given based on statistical properties of different types of resources, justified empirically by the data, and used throughout. This work aims to provide a global database for natural energy resources ready to integrate into models of energy systems, enabling to introduce at the same time uncertainty over natural resource assessments. The supplementary material provides theoretical details and tables of data and parameters that enable this extensive database to be adapted to a variety of energy systems modelling frameworks.
    Energy 05/2012; 46(1). DOI:10.1016/j.energy.2012.08.018
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    ABSTRACT: Environmentally extended multiregional input-output (MRIO) analysis can be used to investigate final production and consumption attributions of emissions. As the distinction between the two attributions has been brought to the attention of policy-makers, there is an ever greater need to understand how and why they differ, by analyzing the connections between production and consumption activities. Seeking to meet this need, we present an approach for mapping flows of embodied emissions through a Leontief production system. The approach, seen as an extension of Structural Path Analysis (SPA), provides an exhaustive map of supply chain linkages between final production and consumption attributions of emissions. Whereas SPA is traditionally used to extract and rank individual supply chains according to the emissions occurring at the end of each chain, the mapping approach considers emissions embodied in the flows of intermediate products linking different economic sectors along supply chains. Illustrative results are presented from a global MRIO model and CO(2) emissions for 2004. The emissions embodied in a sector's total output of products is also of interest: a method for calculating this is presented and shown to provide further insight into where in the production system a sector's overall emissions impact is concentrated.
    Environmental Science & Technology 11/2011; 45(24):10516-23. DOI:10.1021/es202313e
  • Making Housing More Affordable: The Role of Intermediate Tenures, 03/2011: pages 37 - 56; , ISBN: 9781444327854
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    ABSTRACT: This paper describes the relationship between regional climate in the home area and the choice of taking holidays in the region of origin or abroad. This decision is simultaneously estimated with a bivariate probit model. The study combines the socioeconomic characteristics of European households with information on the region of residence, such as climate, which is defined according to a new annualized climate index. The estimated probabilities are analysed using GIS and nonparametric techniques. The results of modelling support the hypothesis that the climate in the region of residence is a strong determinant of holiday destination choice. They show that residents in regions with better climate indices have a higher probability of travelling domestically and a lower probability of travelling abroad.
    Tourism Management 12/2010; 31(6-31):744-753. DOI:10.1016/j.tourman.2009.07.015
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    ABSTRACT: As global fuel reserves are depleted, alternative and more efficient forms of energy generation and delivery will be required. Combined heat and power with district heating (CHP-DH) provides an alternative energy production and delivery mechanism that is less resource intensive, more efficient and provides greater energy security than many popular alternatives. It will be shown that the economic viability of CHP-DH networks depends on several principles, namely (1) the optimisation of engineering and design principles; (2) organisational and regulatory frameworks; (3) financial and economic factors. It was found that in the long term DH is competitive with other energy supply and distribution technologies such as electricity and gas. However, in the short to medium term it is shown that economic risk, regulatory uncertainty and lock-in of existing technology are the most significant barriers to CHP-DH development. This research suggests that under the present regulatory and economic paradigm, the infrastructure required for DH networks remains financially prohibitive; the implementation of government policies are complicated and impose high transaction costs, while engineering solutions are frequently not implemented or economically optimised. If CHP-DH is going to play any part in meeting climate change targets then collaboration between public and private organisations will be required. It is clear from this analysis that strong local government involvement is therefore necessary for the co-ordination, leadership and infrastructural deployment of CHP-DH.
    Energy Policy 11/2010; 38(11):6936-6945. DOI:10.1016/j.enpol.2010.07.010
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    ABSTRACT: This paper addresses the relationship between agrobiodiversity conservation and sustainable agricultural intensification. A stylised theoretical model is used to explore the conditions by which both agrobiodiversity and conventional input intensification may increase through optimal adjustments of input use in agrobiodiversity-poor agroecosystems. The model shows that this result can arise in quite general circumstances where there is (1) an agricultural production technology that allows a positive relationship between ecological integrity of a given agricultural area and agricultural productivity, and (2) decision maker preferences that recognise this positive relationship and generate resource allocation decisions that support it. While increase in agrobiodiversity conservation is a necessary condition for optimal resource adjustments, whether input use will increase or decrease along this optimal path depends on the buffering effect of agrobiodiversity on ecosystem damage and the relative societal welfare impacts of agricultural output (e.g., food and fibre) reductions and ecosystem damage. Thus we identify conditions that promote agrobiodiversity as a supporting service for the sustainable intensification of agricultural production. A provocative hypothesis derived from the model points at the possibility that ecosystem damage (agrobiodiversity loss) can optimally decline even when agriculture undergoes an intensification process.
    Ecological Economics 08/2010; 69(10):1926-1933. DOI:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2010.04.025
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