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    ABSTRACT: This paper examines the health implications of global PM reduction accompanying greenhouse gas emissions reductions in the 180 national economies of the global macroeconomy. A human health effects module based on empirical data on GHG emissions, PM emissions, background PM concentrations, source apportionment and human health risk coefficients is used to estimate reductions in morbidity and mortality from PM exposures globally as co-reduction of GHG reductions. These results are compared against the "fuzzy bright line" that often underlies regulatory decisions for environmental toxics, and demonstrate that the risk reduction through PM reduction would usually be considered justified in traditional risk-based decisions for environmental toxics. It is shown that this risk reduction can be on the order of more than 4 × 10(-3) excess lifetime mortality risk, with global annual cost savings of slightly more than $10B, when uniform GHG reduction measures across all sectors of the economy form the basis for climate policy ($2.2B if only Annex I nations reduce). Consideration of co-reduction of PM-10 within a climate policy framework harmonized with other environmental policies can therefore be an effective driver of climate policy. An error analysis comparing results of the current model against those of significantly more spatially resolved models at city and national scales indicates errors caused by the low spatial resolution of the global model used here may be on the order of a factor of 2.
    Journal of Environmental Management 04/2013; 125C:1-6.
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    ABSTRACT: Input-output analysis is frequently used in studies of large-scale weather-related (e.g., Hurricanes and flooding) disruption of a regional economy. The economy after a sudden catastrophe shows a multitude of imbalances with respect to demand and production and may take months or years to recover. However, there is no consensus about how the economy recovers. This article presents a theoretical route map for imbalanced economic recovery called dynamic inequalities. Subsequently, it is applied to a hypothetical postdisaster economic scenario of flooding in London around the year 2020 to assess the influence of future shocks to a regional economy and suggest adaptation measures. Economic projections are produced by a macro econometric model and used as baseline conditions. The results suggest that London's economy would recover over approximately 70 months by applying a proportional rationing scheme under the assumption of initial 50% labor loss (with full recovery in six months), 40% initial loss to service sectors, and 10-30% initial loss to other sectors. The results also suggest that imbalance will be the norm during the postdisaster period of economic recovery even though balance may occur temporarily. Model sensitivity analysis suggests that a proportional rationing scheme may be an effective strategy to apply during postdisaster economic reconstruction, and that policies in transportation recovery and in health care are essential for effective postdisaster economic recovery.
    Risk Analysis 04/2013;
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    ABSTRACT: A model is presented in this work for simulating endogenously the evolution of the marginal costs of production of energy carriers from non-renewable resources, their consumption, depletion pathways and timescales. Such marginal costs can be used to simulate the long term average price formation of energy commodities. Drawing on previous work where a global database of energy resource economic potentials was constructed, this work uses cost distributions of non-renewable resources in order to evaluate global flows of energy commodities. A mathematical framework is given to calculate endogenous flows of energy resources given an exogenous commodity price path. This framework can be used in reverse in order to calculate an exogenous marginal cost of production of energy carriers given an exogenous carrier demand. Using rigid price inelastic assumptions independent of the economy, these two approaches generate limiting scenarios that depict extreme use of natural resources. This is useful to characterise the current state and possible uses of remaining non-renewable resources such as fossil fuels and natural uranium. The theory is however designed for use within economic or technology models that allow technology substitutions. In this work, it is implemented in the global power sector model FTT:Power. Policy implications are given.
    Energy Policy 09/2012;
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    ABSTRACT: This paper presents an assessment of global economic energy potentials for all major natural energy resources. This work is based on both an extensive literature review and calculations using natural resource assessment data. Economic potentials are presented in the form of cost-supply curves, in terms of energy flows for renewable energy sources, or fixed amounts for fossil and nuclear resources, with strong emphasis on uncertainty, using a consistent methodology that allow direct comparisons to be made. In order to interpolate through available resource assessment data and associated uncertainty, a theoretical framework and a computational methodology are given based on statistical properties of different types of resources, justified empirically by the data, and used throughout. This work aims to provide a global database for natural energy resources ready to integrate into models of energy systems, enabling to introduce at the same time uncertainty over natural resource assessments. The supplementary material provides theoretical details and tables of data and parameters that enable this extensive database to be adapted to a variety of energy systems modelling frameworks.
    Energy 05/2012; 46(1).
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    ABSTRACT: Environmentally extended multiregional input-output (MRIO) analysis can be used to investigate final production and consumption attributions of emissions. As the distinction between the two attributions has been brought to the attention of policy-makers, there is an ever greater need to understand how and why they differ, by analyzing the connections between production and consumption activities. Seeking to meet this need, we present an approach for mapping flows of embodied emissions through a Leontief production system. The approach, seen as an extension of Structural Path Analysis (SPA), provides an exhaustive map of supply chain linkages between final production and consumption attributions of emissions. Whereas SPA is traditionally used to extract and rank individual supply chains according to the emissions occurring at the end of each chain, the mapping approach considers emissions embodied in the flows of intermediate products linking different economic sectors along supply chains. Illustrative results are presented from a global MRIO model and CO(2) emissions for 2004. The emissions embodied in a sector's total output of products is also of interest: a method for calculating this is presented and shown to provide further insight into where in the production system a sector's overall emissions impact is concentrated.
    Environmental Science & Technology 11/2011; 45(24):10516-23.
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    ABSTRACT: This paper addresses the relationship between agrobiodiversity conservation and sustainable agricultural intensification. A stylised theoretical model is used to explore the conditions by which both agrobiodiversity and conventional input intensification may increase through optimal adjustments of input use in agrobiodiversity-poor agroecosystems. The model shows that this result can arise in quite general circumstances where there is (1) an agricultural production technology that allows a positive relationship between ecological integrity of a given agricultural area and agricultural productivity, and (2) decision maker preferences that recognise this positive relationship and generate resource allocation decisions that support it. While increase in agrobiodiversity conservation is a necessary condition for optimal resource adjustments, whether input use will increase or decrease along this optimal path depends on the buffering effect of agrobiodiversity on ecosystem damage and the relative societal welfare impacts of agricultural output (e.g., food and fibre) reductions and ecosystem damage. Thus we identify conditions that promote agrobiodiversity as a supporting service for the sustainable intensification of agricultural production. A provocative hypothesis derived from the model points at the possibility that ecosystem damage (agrobiodiversity loss) can optimally decline even when agriculture undergoes an intensification process.
    Ecological Economics 08/2010; 69(10):1926-1933.
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    ABSTRACT: This paper examines different carbon pathways for achieving deep CO2 reduction targets for the UK using a macro-econometric hybrid model E3MG, which stands for Energy-Economy-Environment Model at the Global level. The E3MG, with the UK as one of its regions, combines a top-down approach for modeling the global economy and for estimating the aggregate and disaggregate energy demand and a bottom-up approach (Energy Technology subModel, ETM) for simulating the power sector, which then provides feedback to the energy demand equations and the whole economy. The ETM submodel uses a probabilistic approach and historical data for estimating the penetration levels of the different technologies, considering their economic, technical and environmental characteristics. Three pathway scenarios (CFH, CLC and CAM) simulate the CO2 reduction by 40%, 60% and 80% by 2050 compared to 1990 levels respectively and are compared with a reference scenario (REF), with no reduction target. The targets are modeled as the UK contribution to an international mitigation effort, such as achieving the G8 reduction targets, which is a more realistic political framework for the UK to move towards deep reductions rather than moving alone. This paper aims to provide modeling evidence that deep reduction targets can be met through different carbon pathways while also assessing the macroeconomic effects of the pathways on GDP and investment.
    Energy Policy 06/2010; 38(6):3067-3077.
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    ABSTRACT: We examine the interest rate transmission mechanism for the Eurozone and the USA and discuss this issue in the light of the recent financial market tensions. For an efficient monetary policy, any change in the central bank policy rate is meant to be transmitted to retail interest rates, ultimately influencing consumer and business lending rates and therefore aggregate domestic demand and output. The disaggregated GETS methodology is employed, which allows us to reveal the relative importance of the central bank and money market rates as policy vehicle variables in the two banking systems. Our empirical results for the two banking systems are rather mixed as far as it concerns the pass-through transmission and completeness. We also refer to the lessons learned prior to and after the collapse of the monetary and financial system on both sides of the Atlantic. We believe that this study has interesting policy insights and provides certain policy suggestions, which might be useful for the regulatory authorities in their attempt to monitor and reinforce monetary policy effectiveness.
    Journal of Policy Modeling 05/2010; 32(3):323-338.
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    ABSTRACT: This paper addresses the relationship between equity and efficiency in PES schemes from a conceptual point of view. Emphasis is placed on the role of the institutional setting, social perceptions about economic fairness (or distributive justice of the payments), uncertainty and interactions between agents, including power relations. We introduce the heuristic concept of the 'efficiency-equity interdependency curve' to illustrate potential combinations between equity and efficiency that may be theoretically possible. The paper argues that different types of institutional factors determine which equity-efficiency combinations may be potentially feasible, influence the actual combination that will be achieved on the ground, and condition possible changes in that combination due to exogenous factors. By stressing the role of institutional aspects in shaping the equity-efficiency relationship, the paper attempts to go beyond the dominant Coasean vision of PES.
    Ecological Economics 04/2010; 69(6):1237-1244.
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    ABSTRACT: This article provides an alternative and novel theoretical approach to the conceptualization and analysis of payments for environmental services (PES). We devote special emphasis to institutional and political economy issues, which have been somewhat neglected in the literature on PES. We argue that the Coasean and pure market approach dominating the conceptualization of PES in the literature cannot be easily generalized and implemented in practice. By contrast, taking into account complexities related to uncertainty, distributional issues, social embeddedness, and power relations permits acknowledging the variety of contexts and institutional settings in which PES operate. The alternative approach presented in this introductory article to the special section may be more appealing to PES practitioners, since while avoiding restrictive and prescriptive standpoints, it allows some key sources of complexities they usually deal with on the ground to be more easily understood.
    Ecological Economics 04/2010; 69(6):1202-1208.
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