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    ABSTRACT: Both fuel cell and electric vehicles have the potential to play a major role in a transformation towards a low carbon transport system that meets travel demands in a cleaner and more efficient way if hydrogen and electricity was produced in a sustainable manner. Cost reductions are central to this challenge, since these technologies are currently too expensive to compete with conventional vehicles based on fossil fuels. One important mechanism through which technology costs fall is learning-by-doing, the process by which cumulative global deployment leads to cost reduction. This paper develops long-term scenarios by implementing global technology learning endogenously in the TIAM-UCL global energy system model to analyse the role of hydrogen and electricity to decarbonise the transport sector. The analysis uses a multi-cluster global technology learning approach where key components (fuel cell, electric battery and electric drive train), to which learning is applied, are shared across different vehicle technologies such as hybrid, plug-in hybrid, fuel cell and battery operated vehicles in cars, light goods vehicles and buses. The analysis shows that hydrogen and electricity can play a critical role to decarbonise the transport sector. They emerge as complementary transport fuels, rather than as strict competitors, in the short and medium term, with both deployed as fuels in all scenarios. However, in the very long-term when the transport sector has been almost completely decarbonised, technology competition between hydrogen and electricity does arise, in the sense that scenarios using more hydrogen in the transport sector use less electricity and vice versa.
    International Journal of Hydrogen Energy 03/2013; 38(8):3419–3432.
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    ABSTRACT: In order to reduce energy-related CO2 emissions different options have been considered: energy efficiency improvements, structural changes to low carbon or zero carbon fuel/technologies, carbon sequestration, and reduction in energy-service demands (useful energy). While efficiency and technology options have been extensively studied within the context of climate change mitigation, this paper addresses the possible role of price-related energy-service demand reduction. For this analysis, the elastic demand version of the TIAM–UCL global energy system model is used in combination with decomposition analysis. The results of the CO2 emission decomposition indicate that a reduction in energy-service demand can play a limited role, contributing around 5% to global emission reduction in the 21st century. A look at the sectoral level reveals that the demand reduction can play a greater role in selected sectors like transport contributing around 16% at a global level. The societal welfare loss is found to be high when the price elasticity of demand is low.
    Energy Policy - ENERG POLICY. 01/2011; 39(11):7224-7233.
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    ABSTRACT: Baselines are generally accepted as a key input assumption in long-term energy modelling, but energy models have traditionally been poor on identifying baselines assumptions. Notably, transparency on the current policy content of model baselines is now especially critical as long-term climate mitigation policies have been underway for a number of years. This paper argues that the range of existing energy and emissions policies are an integral part of any long-term baseline, and hence already represent a “with-policy” baseline, termed here a Business-as-Unusual (BAuU). Crucially, existing energy policies are not a sunk effort; as impacts of existing policy initiatives are targeted at future years, they may be revised through iterative policy making, and their quantitative effectiveness requires ex-post verification. To assess the long-term role of existing policies in energy modelling, currently identified UK policies are explicitly stripped out of the UK MARKAL Elastic Demand (MED) optimisation energy system model, to generate a BAuU (with-policy) and a REF (without policy) baseline. In terms of long-term mitigation costs, policy-baseline assumptions are comparable to another key exogenous modelling assumption — that of global fossil fuel prices. Therefore, best practice in energy modelling would be to have both a no-policy reference baseline, and a current policy reference baseline (BAuU). At a minimum, energy modelling studies should have a transparent assessment of the current policy contained within the baseline. Clearly identifying and comparing policy-baseline assumptions are required for cost effective and objective policy making, otherwise energy models will underestimate the true cost of long-term emissions reductions.
    Energy Economics. 01/2011;
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    ABSTRACT: The period from 2003 to 2008 was marked by an oil price increase comparable to the two oil price crises in the 1970s. This paper looks in detail at the situation of the oil price crises 30 years ago and compares them along various aspects on the demand and supply side with the recent price increase to identify similarities and differences. While both oil price crises in 1973 and 1979/1980 were ultimately caused by supply actions of members of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), all three oil price crises were preceded by high demand growth. Other aspects that favoured a high oil price in all three cases were low investments in new oil fields, as a consequence low spare capacity, and a weak US dollar. In addition, the recent oil price surge has been characterised by a high global refinery utilisation and refineries that did not adapt fast enough to the rising demand for lighter oil products. Moreover, broader geopolitical uncertainties, combined with risks associated with the oil trade helped push the oil price into a triple-digit zone. Speculation played only a limited and temporary role in accelerating price movements during the recent price increase.
    Energy Policy. 01/2010;
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    ABSTRACT: As a response to the twin challenges of climate change mitigation and energy security, the UK government has set a groundbreaking target of reducing the UK’s economy-wide carbon emissions by 80% from 1990 levels by 2050. A second key UK energy policy is to increase the share of final energy consumption from renewables sources to 15% by 2020, as part of the wider EU Renewable Directive. The UK’s principle mechanisms to meet this renewable target are the Renewable Obligation (RO) in the electricity sector, the Renewable Transport Fuel Obligation (RTFO), and most recently the Renewable Heat Programme (RHP) for buildings. This study quantifies a range of policies, energy pathways, and sectoral trade-offs when combining mid- and long-term UK renewables and CO2 reduction policies. Stringent renewable policies are the binding constraints through 2020. Furthermore, the interactions between RO, RTFO, and RHP policies drive trade-offs between low carbon electricity, bio-fuels, high efficiency natural gas, and demand reductions as well as resulting 2020 welfare costs. In the longer term, CO2 reduction constraints drive the costs and characteristics of the UK energy system through 2050.
    Energy Policy. 01/2010;
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    ABSTRACT: Economic growth with less use of primary energy and lower carbon emissions can be achieved through existing and new technical solutions and by behavioural change. These solutions secure growth with lower carbon emissions and reduce our dependence on oil and gas, thereby improving security of energy supply. The implication of the Energy White Paper goal of reducing CO2 emissions by 60% by 2050 is a six-fold reduction in the carbon intensity of the UK economy, and further reductions will be needed. Efficient and renewable supply, distribution and end-use technologies have multiplicative effects, but constraining demand growth is crucial to the rate and extent of reducing emissions. Goals include reductions in the energy intensity of transport and buildings and in the energy intensity of major building materials with the development of technologies and demand management. There will also need to be infrastructural developments that encourage low-carbon technologies and increase energy diversity and security of supply, better low-carbon planning and improved co-ordination of planning, building control and other policy tools, better monitoring and feedback on the real performance of energy-efficient technologies, and improved capabilities to model whole energy systems, including demand and supply as well as social and economic issues.
    Energy Policy. 01/2008;
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    ABSTRACT: This paper argues that energy efficiency in dwellings probably needs to improve more rapidly, and to higher levels, than is likely to be achieved by current policy if global mean temperature rise is to be held to 2 K. History suggests that achieving real reductions in carbon emissions is not easy in this sector. Future progress will require significant changes in the way policy is formulated and implemented.
    Energy Policy. 01/2008;
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    ABSTRACT: Not Available
    IET Power Convention, 2007; 10/2007
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    ABSTRACT: A follow-up study was undertaken of 15 ‘low-energy’ dwellings in Milton Keynes, UK, that were originally monitored for temperature and energy consumption from 1989 to 1991. These measurements were repeated in 2005–2006, with the results compared with the baseline using standardised daily external conditions of 5 °C. The 2005–2006 study found mean temperatures of 19.8 °C (95% confidence interval: 19.7–20.5) for living rooms and 19.3 °C (CI: 19.6–20.1) for main bedrooms. Weak evidence was found for a 10% increase in gas consumption over 15 years to 87 kWh/day (95%CI: 77–96) and overall electricity usage rose by 30% to 15 kWh/day (CI: 13.6–16.5). Dwellings were classified into three groups of low, middle, and high-energy users in 1990. In 2005–2006, this high group consumed more energy than the other two groups combined and accounted for most increases in energy use; their gas usage rose by 20% to 130 kWh/day (110–150), electricity by 75% to 28 kWh/day (CI: 25.3–31.2), and had 50% higher energy intensity at 172 Wh/m2 (CI: 150–195). On average the high group comprised dwellings that were larger, had been extended, and whose occupants had higher incomes than the two other groups. The results suggest that research for the development of energy policy, including building regulations, should focus both on how energy is currently used and on households where the largest future increases are likely to occur.
    Summerfield, A.J. and Lowe, R.J. and Bruhns, H.R. and Caeiro, J.A. and Steadman, J.P. and Oreszczyn, T. (2007) Milton Keynes Energy Park revisited: changes in internal temperatures and energy usage. Energy and Buildings, 39 (7). pp. 783-791. ISSN 03787788. 07/2007;
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    ABSTRACT: The UK government has established ambitious policies to address climate change and promote renewable energy, and has set targets both for reducing carbon emissions and for deploying renewables. Scotland, a constituent nation of the UK, has also set its own targets for climate change mitigation and renewable electricity. This paper analyses the energy, economic and environmental implications of carbon and renewable electricity targets in Scotland and the UK using a newly developed two-region UK MARKAL energy system model, where Scotland (SCT) and rest of the UK (RUK) are the two regions. The paper shows that meeting Scotland's carbon targets does not require additional decarbonisation effort if the UK meets its own targets at least cost; and that Scotland's renewable energy ambitions do imply additional costs above the least cost path to the meeting the UK's obligations under the EU renewable energy directive. Meeting Scottish renewable electricity targets diverts investment and deployment in renewables from rest of the UK to Scotland. In addition to increased energy system cost, Scottish renewable electricity targets may also require early investment in new electricity transmission capacity between Scotland and rest of the UK.
    Energy Policy. 50:773–783.
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Building and Environment. 01/2010;
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Summerfield, A.J. and Lowe, R.J. and Bruhns, H.R. and Caeiro, J.A. and Steadman, J.P. and Oreszczyn, T. (2007) Milton Keynes Energy Park revisited: changes in internal temperatures...
6 Downloads